Kutheni le nto iTungsten Carbide kunye neCobalt Powders zinyuke ngexabiso kulo nyaka?

I. I-Cobalt Powder Frenzy: Ukumiswa kokuThunyelelwa ngaphandle kwe-DRC + ukuPhakamisa kwaMandla amatsha eGlobal

1. I-DRC Inqumle i-80% ye-Global Cobalt Supply

I-Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) ibonelelaI-78% yecobalt yehlabathi. NgoFebruwari 2025, ngokukhawuleza yabhengeza aI-4 - inyanga ye-cobalt ukumiswa kokuthumela ngaphandle, ukutshitshisa ukunikezelwa kwe-cobalt yehlabathi nge-26% (elingana ne-30,000 - i-toni yenyanga yokungaphumeleli). Abanyibiliki behlabathi bajongane “nengxaki yempahla ekrwada,” apho amazinga okusebenza ehle ukuya kuma-58%. Amancinci - ukuya - aphakathi amashishini ade avale, etyhala icobalt powderamaxabiso anyuke nge ¥3,500/toni kwinyanga enye- olona tsiba lukhulu ukusukela ngo-2024.

2. Amandla amatsha kunye neeMveliso ze-3C zibangela i-Cobalt Scramble, i-Draining Stocks

Ukuthengiswa kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha ehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba kunyuke nge-25% ngo-2025.iibhetri ze-lithium ze-ternary (kwi-EVs) kunye ne-cobalt - iibhetri ze-asidi (kwizixhobo ze-3C)zibangela imfuno ye-cobalt, ethe yagqitha kwi-150,000 yeetoni. Kanye ngokwaneleyo iintsuku ze-45, i-cobalt powder stocks ngokuzihlala iintsuku ezingama-28 kuphela— unikezelo – ibango lokungalingani ngamaxabiso axhomileyo.

3. Ukugcinwa kweemali kunye neZibhambathiso zeXesha Elide Kudala i-Spiral yeXabiso

Ukuvalwa kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kwe-DRC kubangele unxunguphalo. Abarhwebi baqokelele ngaphezulu kwe-30% yezibonelelo, beqhuba amaxabiso eendawo ukuya phezulu nge-12%. Ukuthintela izothuso zexesha elizayo, abenzi beebhetriisayinwe izivumelwano zexesha elide kwiinyanga ezi-3 phambi kwexesha, ukwenza amaxabiso exesha elide-8% aphezulu kunendawo. Oku kudala umjikelo:ukunyuka kwamaxabiso → ukuqokelela ngaphezulu → namaxabiso aphezulu.

II. I-Tungsten Carbide Surge: Imigodi yeGlobal eqinile + Amacandelo akhulayo akhulayo

1. I-Quota Cuts kunye nokuvalwa kwe-Cripple Tungsten Supply

Ngaphezulu kwe-60% ye-tungsten yehlabathi ivela kwindawo enye engundoqo. Ngo-2025, i-quotas yokuqala-yokujikeleza kwemigodi yachithwa yi-6.45%, kwaye i-30% yemigodi emincinci ivaliwe ngenxa yemithetho engqongqo yokusingqongileyo. Ixabiso lokugxilwa kwe-tungsten emnyama (izinto eziluhlaza)hit ¥172,000/toni(irekhodi eliphezulu). NgoJuni, amaxabiso e-tungsten carbide powder anyuke ukuya¥364/kg.

2. I-Photovoltaics, i-Defence, kunye ne-Drones Drive Explosive Demand

I-Tungsten carbide ayiseyiyo kuphela izixhobo zokusika!Iingcingo ze-Photovoltaic tungsten (ezine>14% yokungena kwihlabathi jikelele)ziyakhula, ngeefemu eziphambili ““ngebhiliyoni – imizila yokuvelisa iimitha” eziqhuba ngokungapheliyo. Ukhuselo (ukudibanisa kwenyukliya) kunye namashishini edrone nawo axhwila itungsten carbide, ngala macandelo mathathu.ibalelwa kwi-40% yemfuno entsha- Ukukhupha iimarike ngobusuku.

3. Izilawuli zokuThunyela ngaphandle Kwenza i-Global Stockpiling Spree

I-tungsten enkulu - iintlanga ezithumela ngaphandle zazisa "enye - imvume - ngokomyalelo" wemithetho. Ukoyika ukunqongophala, abathengi baphesheya kweelwandleyaqala ukuqokelela iinyanga ezi-6 kwangoko, ukutyhalela amaxabiso kumazwe ngamazwe nge-13% ngaphezu kwamanqanaba asekhaya. Kwi-Q1 2025, amaxabiso e-tungsten carbide aphuma kwi-45%, kwaye ii-odolo zangaphandle zenza i-35% yokuthengisa - imfuno yangaphandle yongeza i-fuel ngaphezulu emlilweni.

III. Ngaba Amaxabiso Aya Kuqhubeka Enyuka? Iinkampani kufuneka ziphendule njani?

1. Ixesha elifutshane-Ithuba: Ukuguquguquka okuPhakamileyo njengoko iZikhewu ziZingisa

• Umgubo weCobalt: Ukuvalwa kokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-DRC kuya kuhlala kude kube ngu-Q3 2025, kudala umsantsa ongama-32,000 – iitoni zehlabathi. Amaxabiso azotshintsha phakathi¥260–¥280/kg.
• Tungsten Carbide Powder: Nge-15,000 - i-gap yempahla eluhlaza kunye nemfuno ephezulu ye-photovoltaic, amaxabiso anokuvavanya¥380/kg.

2. Ixesha elide-Ithuba: Ugqatso phakathi kokuTshintshwa nokuTshintsha

• Cobalt: Iifemu zitshintsha imveliso ukuya eIndonesia (kunye nabadlali abaphezulu esele besakha izityalo). Ngo-2026, umthamo omtsha unokunciphisa uxinzelelo lobonelelo.
• ITungsten Carbide: Qaphelaizixhobo zokusika i-silicon carbide(sele ithathe indawo ye-20% ye-tungsten carbide). Iinkampani kufuneka zijikeleze kwiimveliso eziphezulu (umzekelo, i-nano - grade tungsten carbide, eyenza inzuzo nge-50%).

3. IziCwangciso zokuSinda: Ukubonelela ngokuKhuselekileyo + uPhuculo lweTekhnoloji

• Ixesha elifutshane: Tshixa iimpahla ngeekhontrakthi zexesha elide okanye usebenzise ikamva ukunqanda umngcipheko wamaxabiso.
• Ixesha elide: Tyala imali kwi-R & D kwiimveliso eziphezulu (umzekelo, i-cobalt ephezulu - ecocekileyo ye-semiconductors, i-tungsten ye-nyukliya fusion). Sebenzisa iteknoloji ukubetha uxinzelelo lweendleko.

Oku kunyuka kwexabiso kuqhutywa yiimigaqo-nkqubo yengingqi, imfuno yehlabathi, kunye nemidlalo eyinkunzi. Kwiinkampani kwihlabathi liphela, impumelelo ithetha ukuqonda ukuba "kutheni iimpahla zixinene" kwaye "ngubani othenga ngakumbi" - emva koko iqinisekise ikhonkco lokubonelela okanye ukukhawulezisa ukusungula izinto ezintsha. Kuphela ke banokuthi baphumelele kwesi saqhwithi somthombo.